Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc49…9653 crypto 1411 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,178 (-3%) realized −$5,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate83%1170W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$203
14 days−$151
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,530
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.7% -12.0% 95% 5% -13.1%
≤30d 42 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 787 -5.3% -14.3% 89% 17% -11.6%
all 1411 -6.0% -15.0% 83% 27% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 27% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 11% -20.8%
15% -30.5% 5% -28.5%
20% -37.3% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$64 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1170 / 241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1411 / 1411
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1411 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $300 −$300 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $300 +$6 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $301 +$12 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $301 +$16 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $300 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $296 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $259 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $292 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $250 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $71 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $122 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $290 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $9 −$5 -50%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $45 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $38 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $37 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 16 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $313 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $318 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $301 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $141 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $296 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $259 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $292 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records