Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

FC 0xfc47…daac sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$25 (-12%) realized −$25 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-23.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-15.8%	-23.8%	67%	33%	-23.9%
≤30d	3	-15.8%	-23.8%	67%	33%	-23.9%
≤90d	3	-15.8%	-23.8%	67%	33%	-23.9%
all	3	-15.8%	-23.8%	67%	33%	-23.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.8%	33%	-23.9%
10%	-31.1%	33%	-31.2%
15%	-37.7%	33%	-37.9%
20%	-43.8%	33%	-44.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$55 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized−$25

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5	Over	50¢	50¢	$39	$39	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$55	+$29	+52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$55	−$55	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$55	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$40	1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$55	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$55	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	99¢	$55	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.82 · official $38.82 (match) · 7 history records