Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc45…c587
crypto · 27 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? No 49¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$1
weather 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 49¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 54% -22.7%
≤30d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 54% -22.7%
≤90d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 54% -22.7%
all 26 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 54% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 54% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 38% -30.1%
15% -37.1% 23% -36.9%
20% -43.3% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.34 · official $2.34 (match) · 64 history records