Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc44…fa40 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$512 (+13%) realized +$674 · open −$162
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days+$144
14 days+$316
30 days+$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$347
other 6% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 29 +6.7% -3.4% 48% 48% +3.6%
≤90d 29 +6.7% -3.4% 48% 48% +3.6%
all 29 +6.7% -3.4% 48% 48% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 48% +3.6%
10% -12.7% 48% -6.3%
15% -21.1% 48% -15.3%
20% -28.9% 45% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$95 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$674
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage25d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 16¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $101 +$96 +95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $303 +$138 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $203 +$168 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$56 -55%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$104 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$124 +122%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$217 +213%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$255 +250%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $152 +$90 +60%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $203 +$161 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $101 +$77 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 35¢ $102 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 27h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $198 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $102 29h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals BUY No 50¢ $101 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $153 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $303 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $71 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 21¢ $46 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $303 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $202 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $102 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $102 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France BUY 26¢ $77 6d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 6d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $51 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.87 · official $137.87 (match) · 50 history records