Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc41…443c other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% $0
other 28% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage492d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $118 −$2 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana May 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 26 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 25 $1 $0 -29%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Shifty Schiff" this week? Apr 21 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February Mar 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.13 · official $30.13 (match) · 163 history records