Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc3f…84ed sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2
politics 36% −$15
other 11% −$1
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 +1.8% -7.9% 56% 19% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 19% -10.1%
10% -16.7% 15% -18.7%
15% -24.7% 15% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage669d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $340 $340 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 76¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $500 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28? Mar 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 03 $4 −$3 -68%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 03 $2 +$1 +72%
IDF Chief Eyal  Zamir out by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $6 $0 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition Jan 26 $6 $0 +4%
Lanka Premier League: Kandy Falcons vs Dambulla Sixers (Game 1) Dec 23 $2 $0 -23%
Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31? Oct 25 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on July 30? Aug 18 $3 $0 +0%
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Aug 18 $3 +$1 +18%
East African countries agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before July? Jul 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
Canada federal election in 2024? Jan 06 $16 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins sale announced before July? Dec 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Dec 19 $756 −$2 -0%
Moreno vs. Albazi Nov 10 $6 +$4 +59%
Sun vs. Fever Series Winner Nov 02 $1 +$1 +54%
Edmundo González arrested before October? Nov 02 $2 $0 +6%
Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6? Sep 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $284 −$13 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $340 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $111 47d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 47d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $100 47d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $110 49d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $109 49d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $110 49d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 49d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $100 49d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $115 83d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $90 83d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $115 84d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $115 84d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $115 84d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $90 84d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $270 99d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $250 99d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $270 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 101d
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 134d
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 134d
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 134d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 58¢ $2 142d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 176d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL No 47¢ $0 176d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.00 · official $595.00 (match) · 81 history records