Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc3e…0ac4 weather 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$30 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%54W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$53
14 days+$56
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$15
weather 26% −$94
sports 20% +$31
crypto 8% +$3
other 3% −$13
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +14.0% +3.1% 47% 38% -5.5%
≤30d 139 +4.9% -5.1% 39% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 139 +4.9% -5.1% 39% 33% -11.3%
all 139 +4.9% -5.1% 39% 33% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 33% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 28% -19.8%
15% -22.5% 22% -27.6%
20% -30.1% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 85
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 143
History coverage17d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 48¢ 54¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 14¢ $37 $21 −$16 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +132%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$23 +25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$18 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$19 -42%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $138 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 +$29 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$25 +482%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $68 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +456%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $52 +$5 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $78 +$39 +50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$3 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$4 +162%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $70 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 48¢ $41 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $70 23h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $37 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 29h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 35h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $37 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.05 · official $107.05 (match) · 464 history records