Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc3d…87c3
other · 5 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$49 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$49 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% $0
other 48% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 25% -72.8%
≤30d 4 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 25% -72.8%
≤90d 4 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 25% -72.8%
all 4 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 25% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 25% -72.8%
10% -46.1% 25% -75.4%
15% -51.3% 25% -77.7%
20% -56.1% 25% -79.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.32 · official $64.32 (match) · 8 history records