Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc3b…9fa6 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$148 (-1%) realized −$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$13
economics 20% −$3
other 12% −$3
crypto 12% −$128
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 36 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,934) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage258d
Avg bet$751
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 9? May 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 05 $111 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? Feb 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Jan 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 19 $3,300 −$3 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $3,330 −$3 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $3,344 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $3,455 −$3 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $3,466 −$3 -0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $3,484 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $30 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 21? Dec 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 9? Dec 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 2? Dec 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Dec 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 30? Nov 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 25? Oct 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2,041 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $1,934 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 47d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 59d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $125 119d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 130d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $33 142d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $35 148d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $55 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 149d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,297 157d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,300 157d
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,327 157d
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,330 157d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,341 157d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,344 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $28 163d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,452 170d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,455 170d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,463 170d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,466 170d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $3,481 170d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $3,484 170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.03 · official $66.03 (match) · 93 history records