Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfc3a…ea6d crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,631per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$17
other 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 10 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,631
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 05 $63 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 24 $122 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $17,486 −$18 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 20 $8 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 19 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 86d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 103d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 104d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 116d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $63 116d
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $119 118d
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $122 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17,469 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17,486 148d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $8 222d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $9 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.85 · official $66.85 (match) · 21 history records