Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc39…398a sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$161 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$992per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days−$238
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$387
other 2% +$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.1% -22.2% 62% 12% -10.2%
≤30d 30 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 17% -9.9%
≤90d 30 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 17% -9.9%
all 30 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 17% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 17% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 13% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,456) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$94 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$992
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,885 +$57 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,874 +$34 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,840 +$34 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $516 +$10 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,787 +$43 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,748 +$38 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,748 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $157 −$11 -7%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,456 +$17 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,674 +$69 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $413 +$8 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $586 +$6 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $652 +$6 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $459 +$186 +41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $363 −$302 -83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $498 −$496 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $358 +$269 +75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $88 +$44 +50%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $36 +$3 +9%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $65 −$15 -23%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $99 +$82 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $154 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $510 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $3,885 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,907 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3,874 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,874 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3,840 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $49 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $49 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $163 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $49 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $74 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $98 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $28 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,830 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,826 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $960 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $1,927 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.50 · official $37.50 (match) · 163 history records