Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc38…c3b4 sports 297 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,425 (-6%) realized −$1,379 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%151W / 144L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$152
14 days−$212
30 days−$1,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$719
other 4% −$1,125
crypto 2% +$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +50.6% +36.2% 62% 62% -13.7%
≤30d 67 -0.8% -10.2% 48% 48% -27.6%
≤90d 241 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 50% -15.8%
all 295 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 51% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 51% -15.2%
10% -19.0% 50% -23.3%
15% -26.8% 48% -30.7%
20% -34.0% 40% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$79 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,379
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses151 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions2
Markets (closed)295 / 297
History coverage100d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 48¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Virtus.pro 61¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,147 −$1,125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $699 +$451 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $228 +$471 +206%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $113 +$116 +103%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $47 +$66 +140%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $302 −$296 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $169 +$134 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $86 +$83 +97%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $47 +$39 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $357 −$355 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $86 +$334 +387%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $145 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $39 +$107 +276%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 29 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $65 +$86 +132%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $19 +$46 +241%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,279 −$1,264 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $386 −$380 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner May 28 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 28 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner May 28 $146 +$91 +63%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner May 27 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner May 27 $70 +$31 +44%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $62 +$37 +61%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner May 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner May 27 $38 +$55 +146%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $18 +$21 +117%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Brute - Map 2 Winner May 26 $181 +$139 +76%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner May 26 $22 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Brute - Map 1 Winner May 26 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner May 26 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 26 $49 +$36 +73%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner May 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $71 +$31 +44%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio May 25 $96 +$87 +90%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner May 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner May 25 $399 +$130 +33%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute - Map 2 Winner May 25 $502 +$382 +76%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $317 −$313 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 45¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 48¢ $52 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,147 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,150 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $699 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $228 40h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $229 40h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $113 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $113 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $47 42h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 5¢ $24 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 14¢ $49 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $302 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $303 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $169 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $170 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $86 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $86 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $47 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $357 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $358 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $62 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 83¢ $63 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 31¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 59¢ $145 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 26¢ $39 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 50¢ $20 18d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Bas BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 35¢ $151 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $1.09 (match) · 566 history records