Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc37…e6f1 sports 78 markets active 4d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-2%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$507
14 days+$453
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$183
other 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.4% -1.0% 43% 43% +72.8%
≤30d 10 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 40% +44.4%
≤90d 78 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 49% -13.0%
all 78 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 49% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -13.0%
10% -18.4% 42% -21.3%
15% -26.3% 32% -28.9%
20% -33.5% 27% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$82 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage75d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$151 +99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $204 +$426 +209%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$46 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $26 +$47 +185%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $101 +$58 +58%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $101 +$25 +25%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $100 +$61 +61%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $50 +$83 +165%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $50 +$94 +188%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $50 +$196 +393%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $100 +$182 +182%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $50 +$95 +190%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 20 $400 +$220 +55%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $100 +$28 +28%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $150 +$125 +83%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $250 +$80 +32%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 11 $50 +$44 +88%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $50 +$34 +68%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $100 +$14 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 54¢ $305 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $51 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $102 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 47¢ $102 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 38¢ $51 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 51¢ $148 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $102 12d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 25¢ $51 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 18¢ $73 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $26 43d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $101 43d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) SELL Knicks 82¢ $160 43d
76ers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 91¢ $126 43d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $101 43d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $101 43d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 30¢ $102 45d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 24¢ $51 48d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 17¢ $102 48d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $50 51d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 26¢ $100 51d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 17¢ $50 52d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 54¢ $150 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records