Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc35…a4d1 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 58L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$16
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$15
other 23% −$2
politics 14% +$20
sports 9% +$3
finance 2% +$56
tech 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 25% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 26 +74.4% +57.8% 42% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 38 +103.4% +84.0% 37% 8% -9.2%
all 100 +39.4% +26.2% 42% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 4% -9.2%
10% +14.1% 4% -17.9%
15% +3.1% 4% -25.8%
20% -7.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage484d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $195 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $187 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $169 −$20 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $489 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $216 −$4 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $562 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $993 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $223 +$4 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $233 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $208 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $636 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $208 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $207 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $233 +$6 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $146 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $414 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $532 +$6 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $9 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $359 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $198 +$7 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $142 +$60 +42%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $659 +$18 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $278 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $172 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,003 −$9 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $996 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $183 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,003 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $189 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 -34%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $194 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $163 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $187 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $187 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $52 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $96 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $169 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $77 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $65 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $83 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $83 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $161 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $49 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $92 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $30 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $94 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $195 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $21 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $209 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $7 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records