Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc34…3120 crypto 194 markets active 10h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%108W / 86L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$16
14 days−$0
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$20
politics 28% +$12
other 18% +$3
tech 1% +$6
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 44% -23.7%
≤30d 107 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 51% -1.1%
≤90d 161 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 50% -19.1%
all 194 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 44% -9.5%
10% -21.0% 42% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 41% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 41% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage228d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records