Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc33…729c sports 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%325W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$265
other 5% −$24
finance 2% −$9
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -52.8% -57.3% 31% 24% -31.7%
≤30d 67 -52.8% -57.3% 31% 24% -31.7%
≤90d 515 -11.7% -20.1% 63% 32% -19.2%
all 515 -11.7% -20.1% 63% 32% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 32% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 22% -26.9%
15% -34.7% 13% -34.0%
20% -41.1% 8% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses325 / 190
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)515 / 482
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 43¢ 86¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+101%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 99¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 Under 98¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5 Under 98¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 Under 98¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Águilas Doradas Rionegro vs. Once Caldas: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$4 -123%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Deportivo Pereira vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HNK Gorica vs. NK Istra 1961: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$8 -159%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$5 -178%
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Independiente Medellín vs. Fortaleza CEIF: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
FC UTA Arad vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Blockx vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Yulia Starodubtseva vs. Jaqueline Cristian: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
ZED FC vs. Pharco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Sarmiento vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Guabirá vs. Club Always Ready: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
FC København vs. Vejle BK: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Independiente Medellín vs. Fortaleza CEIF: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$6 -162%
AD Cali vs. América de Cali: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Vitória SC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$5 -337%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $23 +$5 +22%
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $2 −$2 -80%
Set 2 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +77%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 99¢ $1 0m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 99¢ $1 0m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 99¢ $1 0m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 1m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 1m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 2m
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 2m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 86¢ $5 7m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 70¢ $3 56m
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) SELL Mannarino 52¢ $3 59m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics BUY Nakashima 99¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics BUY Nakashima 99¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics BUY Nakashima 99¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics BUY Nakashima 99¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 41¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 38¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 96¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 96¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 42¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 44¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 44¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 96¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 96¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 97¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 97¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 98¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.46 · official $10.46 (match) · 3500 history records