Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc2d…9fb1 politics 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$1
sports 16% −$2
other 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $340 $341 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,741 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 15m
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $265 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $23 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $1,000 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $1,000 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $6 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $8 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $6 108d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $2,016 116d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $4,663 117d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 117d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 117d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 117d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,232 117d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 117d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,739 117d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,234 130d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,741 130d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 131d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,574 131d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 131d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.39 · official $539.39 (match) · 158 history records