Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc2d…65ec other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3
politics 25% −$5
sports 19% −$5
finance 15% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -1.6% -11.0% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage92d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 26 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $19 −$3 -14%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $5 $0 -10%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Apr 17 $222 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $226 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Mar 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 32m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,375 40m
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 50m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,286 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,255 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $290 2h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,372 2h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 23h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $43 23h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 23h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 23h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $1,429 23h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 23h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,398 24h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $988 24h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $345 24h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 24h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $33 24h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 25h
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No $1 66d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No $7 66d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No $6 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records