Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc2c…1a84
sports · 198 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$247
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 74
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions44
Markets (closed)154 / 198
History coverage13d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 44 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$37
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 68¢ 53¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 83¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? No 82¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 69¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 51¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 54¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Verdant 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 74¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 86¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 87¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +134%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $7 +$3 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$4 +365%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$3 +50%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $3 +$7 +226%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 +$8 +325%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $9 +$1 +17%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Francesca Gandolfi Jun 10 $6 +$4 +67%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Hibah Shaikh Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$3 +197%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +178%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $8 +$2 +23%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $8 +$2 +31%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi Jun 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Eva Vedder Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $8 +$2 +23%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$24
other 15% $0
politics 9% +$7
tech 6% +$10
world 5% +$2
crypto 3% −$7
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $4 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $4 4h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $2 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $2 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 45¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $4 13h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $2 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $4 26h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $4 31h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 21¢ $1 32h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 39h
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 82¢ $4 41h
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 82¢ $4 41h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 87¢ $4 42h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $2 43h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $2 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 54% -0.9%
≤30d 154 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 51% -12.6%
≤90d 154 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 51% -12.6%
all 154 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 51% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 51% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 42% -21.0%
15% -31.0% 34% -28.6%
20% -37.8% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.89 · official $246.87 (match) · 397 history records