Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfc2c…a146 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 559d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2,249per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$54
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% +$75
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 +68.1% +52.1% 56% 33% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.1% 33% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here +37.6% 22% -17.7%
15% +24.3% 11% -25.7%
20% +12.1% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage559d
Avg bet$2,249
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $17,534 +$28 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jan 08 $6 +$2 +27%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 08 $2,318 −$32 -1%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Jan 06 $2,291 +$58 +2%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Apr 23 $59 +$11 +19%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? Mar 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal vs. Everton end in a draw? Mar 14 $11 +$64 +567%
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024? Dec 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 10 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
5kt meteor strike in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $54 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $17,562 89d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 62¢ $17,534 90d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $2,286 165d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 72¢ $2,318 167d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 81¢ $2,349 167d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,291 167d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 250d
Mavericks vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 84¢ $59 465d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? SELL No 100¢ $120 465d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $120 465d
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $44 559d
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $44 559d
Will Arsenal vs. Everton end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 559d
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? SELL No 100¢ $56 559d
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? BUY No 100¢ $56 559d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.00 · official $54.00 (match) · 19 history records