Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc29…f1bb crypto 408 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$615 (-3%) realized −$609 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%194W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$116
14 days−$290
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$591
crypto 23% −$41
sports 19% +$320
politics 14% −$246
world 12% −$256
finance 3% −$65
economics 1% −$42
tech 1% −$13
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -19.7% -27.3% 42% 27% -14.3%
≤30d 115 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 403 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 25% -13.4%
all 403 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 25% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 25% -13.4%
10% -23.3% 19% -21.7%
15% -30.7% 15% -29.3%
20% -37.5% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$609
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses194 / 209
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions5
Markets (closed)403 / 408
History coverage86d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $27 −$5 -17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $32 +$7 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +15%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $26 −$6 -21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$3 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $111 −$14 -13%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $168 +$5 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$4 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$4 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $27 −$4 -14%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $28 −$24 -87%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $972 −$20 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $369 −$10 -3%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $150 −$4 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +25%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $125 −$14 -11%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$12 -30%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$6 -17%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$28 +83%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$34 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$48 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$48 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $89 −$11 -12%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $75 −$16 -21%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $128 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$33 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $16 8h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $16 10h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 10h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 11h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 11h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 11h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 15h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 16h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 27h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 28h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 30h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 30h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 31h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 32h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 33h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $16 33h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 0¢ $4 34h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 34h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 35h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 38h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $28 44h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 45h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 28¢ $38 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.58 · official $126.64 (match) · 1427 history records