Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc27…2144 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$19
other 41% −$16
sports 6% +$95
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 116 +5.7% -4.4% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 125 +9.1% -1.3% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 7% -9.4%
10% -10.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -19.4% 5% -26.0%
20% -27.3% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×15.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage114d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $276 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $233 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $242 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $276 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $283 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 13 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 29 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $328 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $296 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $563 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $51 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $51 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $317 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $318 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $242 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $242 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $276 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $284 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $284 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 370 history records