Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc25…b5ab sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$49
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 46% -0.1%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 47% +0.3%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 47% +0.3%
all 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 47% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% +0.3%
10% -18.5% 47% -9.3%
15% -26.4% 41% -18.0%
20% -33.6% 41% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 +$67 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 +$43 +82%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +89%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$30 +62%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $40 +$13 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $29 −$11 -38%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $19 −$1 -6%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $19 +$20 +102%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $7 +$12 +162%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $8 +$8 +95%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 29m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $72 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $49 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $53 12h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 67¢ $52 19h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 49¢ $40 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $93 38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL 25¢ $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY $14 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $15 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $44 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 36¢ $10 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $18 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $18 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $19 6d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 7d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 7d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 7d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $9 7d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 7d
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 7d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7 7d
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records