Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfc25…615b sports 5 markets active 5d ago coverage 46d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$702 (+85%) realized +$702 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 3 +95.9% +77.3% 100% 100% +78.7%
≤90d 5 +81.3% +64.1% 100% 100% +66.1%
all 5 +81.3% +64.1% 100% 100% +66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.1% 100% +66.1%
10% +48.4% 100% +50.2%
15% +34.0% 100% +35.7%
20% +20.9% 100% +22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$702
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage46d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $226 +$159 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $123 +$64 +52%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $173 +$286 +165%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $110 +$66 +60%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 29 $193 +$115 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $226 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $123 16d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $173 27d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $110 38d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $193 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records