Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc23…8283 sports 1297 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,646 (+2%) realized +$5,511 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%701W / 583L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,650est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$170
14 days+$1,871
30 days+$2,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$6,868
other 5% −$836
crypto 1% +$236
culture 1% −$1,569
weather 0% −$36
economics 0% +$79
politics 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤30d 83 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 55% -2.1%
≤90d 630 -35.1% -41.3% 35% 35% -34.3%
all 1284 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 53% -8.0%
10% -20.8% 51% -16.8%
15% -28.5% 47% -24.9%
20% -35.5% 41% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$161 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$5,135
Realized+$5,511
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses701 / 583
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,650
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1284 / 1297
History coverage330d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,000 $1,320 +$320 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,146 +$146 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $809 −$191 (-19%)
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $300 $270 −$30 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $269 +$19 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $300 $252 −$48 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $229 −$21 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $206 −$44 (-18%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $253 +$185 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $506 +$301 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $253 +$157 +62%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $253 +$193 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $506 +$314 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $506 +$327 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $202 +$131 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$237 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $253 +$157 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $254 −$17 -7%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,218 +$946 +43%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $254 +$278 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $506 +$314 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $253 +$126 +50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $507 +$386 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $252 +$110 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $252 −$250 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $253 +$150 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $507 −$500 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $507 +$436 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$289 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $253 −$250 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $253 +$150 +60%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $253 +$185 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $252 +$121 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $506 +$356 +70%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $253 −$250 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $507 −$500 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $253 +$185 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $253 +$157 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $506 +$301 +60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $128 +$276 +216%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $253 +$185 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $253 +$193 +76%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $253 −$250 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $250 +$250 +100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $253 +$144 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 50¢ $305 1h
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $253 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $253 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $254 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 61¢ $253 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 56¢ $253 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $506 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $507 33h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $506 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $253 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $253 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 34h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 62¢ $253 34h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $253 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $509 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $507 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $237 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $253 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,135.28 · official $5,135.28 (match) · 2884 history records