Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc20…8ed3 other 41 markets active 4h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,335 (-19%) realized −$2,335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days−$1,379
14 days−$1,379
30 days−$1,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,519
crypto 14% −$1,176
sports 11% +$206
world 1% −$28
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 55% 45% -20.4%
≤30d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 55% 45% -20.4%
≤90d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 55% 45% -20.4%
all 41 -7.9% -16.7% 46% 39% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -27.9%
10% -24.7% 27% -34.8%
15% -31.9% 20% -41.1%
20% -38.6% 12% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$158 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage159d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $106 +$21 +20%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $500 +$106 +21%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $127 −$126 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +53%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $102 +$25 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $247 +$23 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$48 +19%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 −$117 -64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 −$28 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$48 +31%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $73 +$29 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$102 -58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $151 +$22 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $367 −$214 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$38 +128%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$33 +397%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$8 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $553 +$125 +23%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$70 -69%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 −$52 -66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $267 +$50 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $234 −$137 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $184 −$94 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,101 −$1,095 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $999 −$55 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,046 −$39 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $551 +$200 +36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $502 −$108 -22%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $154 +$55 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $59 +$81 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 20 $790 −$461 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 16 $156 −$144 -92%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 13 $15 +$10 +68%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 13 $20 −$10 -52%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL No 99¢ $127 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 82¢ $106 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $606 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 82¢ $500 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 77¢ $127 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $77 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 64¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $126 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 80¢ $102 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $74 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 93¢ $70 29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $270 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $301 29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $247 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $34 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $62 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $62 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $149 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $73 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $73 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $174 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $174 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records