Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc1d…9332
other · 14 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$58 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$67 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 6 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 +$14 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$34 +126%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$32 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$34 +223%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$52
other 48% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 18¢ $15 9m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $15 11m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 7¢ $13 22m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 7¢ $5 24m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 41¢ $47 29m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 9¢ $22 43m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 7¢ $5 56m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 25¢ $36 57m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 92¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 11¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 16¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 84¢ $34 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $43 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 19h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 20h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 20h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 64¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +16.7%
≤30d 8 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +16.7%
≤90d 8 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +16.7%
all 8 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 50% +16.7%
10% +0.0% 38% +5.6%
15% -9.7% 38% -4.6%
20% -18.5% 38% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.93 (match) · 29 history records