Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc1b…4cb0 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-16%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -24.3% -31.6% 31% 31% -30.1%
≤30d 64 -24.3% -31.6% 31% 31% -30.1%
≤90d 64 -24.3% -31.6% 31% 31% -30.1%
all 64 -24.3% -31.6% 31% 31% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 31% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 31% -36.8%
15% -44.1% 25% -42.9%
20% -49.6% 16% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records