Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc1a…6049 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,172 (-18%) realized −$3,172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$436
7 days−$436
14 days−$932
30 days−$1,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,846
other 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$50
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% -26.2%
≤30d 21 -41.9% -47.5% 24% 24% -45.6%
≤90d 63 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -29.7%
all 91 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 41% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 41% -24.1%
10% -33.3% 37% -31.3%
15% -39.8% 33% -38.0%
20% -45.7% 27% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$165 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage111d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $435 +$592 +136%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$93 +152%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,463 −$1,363 -93%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $98 −$96 -97%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $405 −$400 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $132 +$116 +88%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $96 −$93 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $438 −$434 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 19 $129 −$127 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $92 +$119 +130%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $102 +$92 +90%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) May 15 $122 +$157 +129%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) May 15 $20 +$16 +80%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 15 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 +$9 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 14 $70 +$30 +44%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $142 −$140 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $71 −$40 -56%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Oh My God (+1.5) May 13 $101 +$74 +73%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 13 $90 +$162 +180%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 13 $157 +$69 +44%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $15 −$8 -54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $38 +$9 +22%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $5 −$3 -61%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $287 +$565 +197%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $295 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $244 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $305 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $494 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $435 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 24h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 17¢ $102 25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $101 25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $1,463 27h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $67 11d
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $405 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 12¢ $31 12d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $61 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 25¢ $63 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 12¢ $31 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $86 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $50 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $9 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $24 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 91¢ $17 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $102 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $52 14d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 16¢ $96 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $95 27d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $438 27d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 19¢ $31 28d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $31 28d
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) BUY Chengdu Rongcheng FC 39¢ $129 28d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L BUY Gen.G Global Academy 33¢ $41 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records