Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc1a…c2b2 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 33% +$1
politics 10% $0
tech 7% $0
weather 3% +$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.3%
all 28 +0.1% -9.5% 57% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage446d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $49 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $53 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 12 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 07 $24 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 10h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $49 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $49 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $20 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $20 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $54 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $53 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $18 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $30 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $40 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $5 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $54 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $54 29d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 100¢ $24 363d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 385d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $24 399d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $24 405d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 99¢ $24 405d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 99¢ $24 407d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May BUY No 98¢ $23 408d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $23 408d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $23 408d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $11 408d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $13 408d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $23 409d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? SELL No 97¢ $20 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.48 · official $22.48 (match) · 70 history records