Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc19…00bd world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$84
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$165
other 16% +$3
tech 9% −$25
sports 7% −$85
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 29% +4.9%
≤30d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 29% +4.9%
≤90d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 29% +4.9%
all 21 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 29% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 29% +4.9%
10% -18.8% 29% -5.1%
15% -26.7% 24% -14.3%
20% -33.9% 19% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$14 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $116 $76 −$41 (-35%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $41 −$17 (-30%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $31 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $30 $11 −$19 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$61 +294%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $70 +$6 +9%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -81%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $86 +$131 +153%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $154 −$34 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$14 -72%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $180 +$73 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $41 −$3 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $74 +$52 +71%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $20 −$6 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $19 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $76 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $13 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 14h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 14h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 34h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $6 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $10 36h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 37h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 37h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 38h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 38h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $30 38h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $41 39h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $36 39h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $15 44h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $20 44h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $70 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 96¢ $217 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $86 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $86 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.07 · official $175.29 · 64 history records