Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:11:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc18…3c01 crypto 784 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$596 (-6%) realized −$589 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%347W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day81.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$413
7 days−$438
14 days−$438
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$813
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 47% -15.8%
≤30d 702 -14.4% -22.6% 44% 41% -17.8%
≤90d 790 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 41% -17.0%
all 790 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 41% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 37% -24.9%
15% -36.4% 33% -32.2%
20% -42.6% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$589
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses347 / 443
Open positions1
Markets (closed)790 / 784
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day81.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 68¢ 50¢ $24 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 342 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$7 -383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $124 +$24 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $114 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$30 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$35 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $83 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$31 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$44 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$31 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$37 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$55 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $159 +$26 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$16 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$28 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $85 +$73 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$11 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$52 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $17 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $17 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $57 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.60 · official $17.60 (match) · 3500 history records