Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc18…1341 weather 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$37 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$186
sports 22% +$147
world 19% −$21
other 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +50.9% +36.5% 36% 36% -15.4%
≤30d 14 +50.9% +36.5% 36% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 14 +50.9% +36.5% 36% 36% -15.4%
all 14 +50.9% +36.5% 36% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.5% 36% -15.4%
10% +23.4% 36% -23.5%
15% +11.5% 36% -30.9%
20% +0.6% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +144% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$36 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $99 −$95 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$103 +982%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $76 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 42h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $30 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.22 · official $91.23 (match) · 37 history records