Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfc16…e237 sports 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+14%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%48W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$24
14 days+$148
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$16
other 20% +$88
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +31.5% +19.0% 34% 34% +5.4%
≤30d 94 +35.3% +22.4% 51% 51% +5.5%
≤90d 94 +35.3% +22.4% 51% 51% +5.5%
all 94 +35.3% +22.4% 51% 51% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 51% +5.5%
10% +10.7% 51% -4.6%
15% -0.0% 49% -13.8%
20% -9.8% 45% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses48 / 46
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage18d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 +$24 +171%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $14 −$4 -31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 +$11 +550%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 +$7 +238%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $3 +$17 +550%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $3 +$11 +344%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$20 +650%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $3 +$4 +118%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $6 +$15 +244%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$12 +96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 +$5 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$61 +596%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $22 +$26 +117%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $19 −$13 -67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $15 +$35 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 12h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $10 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.52 · official $26.63 (match) · 201 history records