Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc14…2e9b crypto 844 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,879 (+0%) realized +$5,878 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%425W / 404L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,477per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$367
tech 0% +$139
other 0% +$279
weather 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 73 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 459 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 0% -9.6%
all 829 +0.4% -9.1% 51% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$2,195) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$683 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$5,878
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses425 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)829 / 844
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$1,477
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $40 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 29h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 30h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 30h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $38 30h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 30h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 30h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.73 · official $450.73 (match) · 3500 history records