Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc10…97f4 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$138 (+16%) realized +$147 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$6
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$107
other 12% +$71
sports 6% +$34
world 6% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -13.6% -21.8% 57% 46% -8.8%
≤30d 37 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 49% +3.8%
≤90d 37 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 49% +3.8%
all 37 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 49% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 49% +3.8%
10% -23.2% 30% -6.1%
15% -30.6% 27% -15.2%
20% -37.4% 22% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage28d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 59¢ 38¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$117 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $15 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $46 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.31 · official $24.81 · 74 history records