Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc0e…ce2f crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+7%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$36
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 52% -9.0%
≤30d 33 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 52% -9.0%
≤90d 33 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 52% -9.0%
all 33 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 52% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 52% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -17.7%
15% -20.5% 45% -25.6%
20% -28.3% 39% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$77 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$69 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $257 −$177 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$45 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $131 +$82 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$88 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $321 −$318 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $82 +$118 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $66 +$34 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$48 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $122 +$68 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$141 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $63 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$28 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$91 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$71 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $149 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $108 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $213 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records