Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc0c…cfc9 sports 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,399 (+3%) realized +$13,003 · open +$2,396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%103W / 121L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,277per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$5,350est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 176d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$18,485
other 17% −$23,727
crypto 14% −$24,157
world 0% +$2,515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -15.4% -23.5% 40% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 78 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 38% -7.1%
≤90d 221 -6.7% -15.6% 45% 43% -14.5%
all 224 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 43% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -22.4%
15% -29.7% 39% -29.9%
20% -36.6% 35% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,561) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,143 vs −$2,066 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$8,877
Realized+$13,003
Unrealized+$2,396
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses103 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$5,350
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$2,277
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 65¢ 90¢ $6,247 $8,612 +$2,364 (+38%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Las Vegas Aces 51¢ 58¢ $233 $265 +$32 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,555 −$1,490 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $2,068 +$1,896 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2,343 −$2,113 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $2,172 −$1,050 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $3,004 +$57 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2,610 −$2,527 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $2,073 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $621 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $833 +$1,097 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $2,523 +$2,037 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1,127 +$632 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,656 −$1,600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $527 −$500 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,459 −$3,435 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,476 +$670 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,850 +$2,150 +116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,865 +$2,798 +150%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $8,927 +$7,861 +88%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $3,838 −$3,837 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3,551 +$287 +8%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 16 $5,033 +$4,289 +85%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8,613 −$8,613 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $660 −$646 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,325 −$1,293 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $984 −$979 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,373 −$2,371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$343 +164%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,752 −$2,752 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $565 +$459 +81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $696 −$688 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,941 +$10,759 +120%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,369 −$1,351 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $565 +$223 +40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $4,705 +$4,776 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$488 +461%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $241 −$220 -91%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,451 −$3,451 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $618 −$618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $101 +$10 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $8,039 +$8,007 +100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $37 −$36 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $6,006 −$6,006 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $440 −$440 -100%
Albirex Niigata vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $417 −$414 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $269 +$174 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 91¢ $281 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $84 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $430 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $353 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $392 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $296 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $512 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1,036 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $478 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $41 20m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $1,781 21m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 51¢ $236 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $136 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $44 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $221 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $306 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $223 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $297 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $439 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $430 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $91 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $253 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $43 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $34 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $22 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,876.66 · official $8,876.66 (match) · 3500 history records