Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc0b…a782 weather 616 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-4%) realized −$388 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%151W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$7
14 days−$63
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$801
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.6% -2.7% 25% 21% -6.2%
≤30d 251 -24.6% -31.8% 20% 15% -23.3%
≤90d 610 -17.0% -24.9% 25% 20% -15.8%
all 610 -17.0% -24.9% 25% 20% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 20% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 16% -23.9%
15% -38.7% 14% -31.2%
20% -44.7% 12% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$388
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses151 / 459
Open positions6
Markets (closed)610 / 616
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$32 +769%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$12 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$12 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$11 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$12 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$11 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $36 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.65 (match) · 3181 history records