Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfc0a…cbfe crypto 1128 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$714 (-3%) realized −$714 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate76%878W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day69.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days−$269
14 days−$245
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -19.9% -27.5% 65% 31% -23.1%
≤30d 877 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 35% -13.0%
≤90d 1162 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 37% -11.8%
all 1162 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 37% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 37% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 20% -20.2%
15% -29.2% 11% -27.9%
20% -36.1% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses878 / 284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1162 / 1128
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day69.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1162 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records