Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc09…76b7 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%100W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
sports 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.8% -5.2% 73% 59% -2.4%
≤30d 22 +4.8% -5.2% 73% 59% -2.4%
≤90d 147 +2.0% -7.7% 60% 48% -8.7%
all 176 +0.3% -9.3% 57% 44% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 44% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 34% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 26% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses100 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage109d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$13 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 07 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 07 $36 −$24 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 07 $3 −$2 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 07 $15 −$12 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 07 $11 +$5 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 07 $24 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 530 history records