Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc07…a082 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$1
crypto 26% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
all 18 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.44 per $1 lost it wins $12.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage242d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Nov 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? Nov 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 30? Nov 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? Oct 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,600 on October 21? Oct 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 16? Oct 21 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 31d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 31d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 69d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 82d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 93d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $21 109d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 127d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 147d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 160d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 98¢ $21 175d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 100¢ $20 190d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY No 100¢ $21 202d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $21 210d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $21 216d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 232d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,600 on October 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 237d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.11 · official $21.11 (match) · 37 history records