Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc06…6e44 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$9
other 17% +$1
politics 13% $0
finance 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.3% -5.6% 29% 14% -6.2%
≤30d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 35% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 35% 5% -8.5%
all 52 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.72 per $1 lost it wins $3.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage279d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 69¢ 70¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $28 +$7 +25%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $66 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 −$1 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $44 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 01 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $56 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.70 · official $56.70 (match) · 192 history records