Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc05…03db crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,709 (-2%) realized −$1,753 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate58%255W / 184L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day55.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$4,496
sports 2% +$64
other 1% +$42
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -85.9% -87.3% 12% 3% -72.9%
≤30d 225 -70.2% -73.0% 28% 4% -42.6%
≤90d 439 -37.7% -43.6% 58% 3% -19.2%
all 439 -37.7% -43.6% 58% 3% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.6% 3% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -49.0% 1% -26.9%
15% -54.0% 1% -34.0%
20% -58.5% 0% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$48 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized−$1,753
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses255 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)439 / 294
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day55.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $230 $273 +$43 (+19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Japan 97¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $77 $66 −$11 (-15%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $51 $41 −$10 (-19%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 83¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 8AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $353 −$353 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 9AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 12PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 12, 4AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - March 23, 6AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 16m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 16m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $3 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 29m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 29m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 29m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $5 30m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 30m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 30m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 31m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 31m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 31m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 1h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $1 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $5 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $10 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.89 · official $919.60 (match) · 3500 history records