Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc04…4f75 world 161 markets active 5h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$907 (+0%) realized −$2,519 · open +$3,426
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate65%88W / 47L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,797per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$17,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3,750
14 days+$4,181
30 days−$1,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 32% +$454
world 27% −$7,654
politics 25% +$3,166
other 16% +$4,791
economics 0% +$96
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +56.7% +41.8% 100% 100% +9.0%
≤30d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 75% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 135 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 20% -10.0%
all 135 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 20% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 20% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 12% -18.6%
15% -30.3% 7% -26.5%
20% -37.1% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,029) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$493 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$17,354
Realized−$2,519
Unrealized+$3,426
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses88 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)135 / 161
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2,797
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 74¢ 88¢ $9,657 $11,607 +$1,951 (+20%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 56¢ 98¢ $1,437 $2,529 +$1,092 (+76%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $1,177 $1,400 +$223 (+19%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $603 $659 +$56 (+9%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $359 $373 +$14 (+4%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 81¢ 100¢ $244 $300 +$56 (+23%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 94¢ 99¢ $192 $203 +$11 (+6%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $110 $120 +$10 (+10%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 49¢ 97¢ $47 $93 +$46 (+100%)
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $40 $6 −$34 (-85%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 52¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+90%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+146%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 44¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $10,763 +$1,303 +12%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $375 +$621 +165%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $7,217 +$1,824 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 16 $8,056 +$432 +5%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $321 +$20 +6%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $476 +$65 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $2,887 −$289 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $827 +$52 +6%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $8,757 +$204 +2%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 07 $427 +$305 +71%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $19,312 −$5,378 -28%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 04 $901 −$234 -26%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $317 +$28 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -70%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +212%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 03 $33,941 +$1,857 +6%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 02 $103 −$30 -30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $14,314 +$2,014 +14%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $9 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $17 −$16 -100%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $383 +$537 +140%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $682 +$22 +3%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $71 +$6 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $1,249 +$44 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $22,066 −$4,836 -22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 26 $391 −$391 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $17,544 −$1,855 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 24 $51,544 +$2,668 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $108 +$12 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? May 23 $1,055 −$678 -64%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 22 $2,027 +$106 +5%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 22 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $84 +$1 +1%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 19 $9 −$8 -86%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $281 −$212 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $263 7h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $10 7h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $35 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $38 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $440 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 12h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $297 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $721 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $325 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 77¢ $1,177 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $9,634 13h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 75¢ $17 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,353.75 · official $17,354.23 (match) · 924 history records