Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfbfd…0029
finance · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,642,744 -10759%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,651,280 · open −$105,240
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118,067
Realized−$11,651,280
Unrealized−$105,240
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions98
Markets (closed)130 / 69
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,568
Trades / day225.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 98 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,652,461
7 days−$11,652,618
14 days−$11,651,280
30 days−$11,651,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $64,627 $66,708 +$2,081 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $16,080 $16,399 +$319 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 95¢ $4,536 $4,575 +$39 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $4,280 $4,500 +$220 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 92¢ 92¢ $3,495 $3,496 +$1 (+0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 68¢ 84¢ $1,358 $1,670 +$312 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,299 $1,323 +$24 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 86¢ 85¢ $1,241 $1,227 −$13 (-1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? No 93¢ 84¢ $1,304 $1,182 −$122 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 82¢ 81¢ $970 $966 −$4 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $860 $905 +$45 (+5%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $801 $856 +$55 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 80¢ 84¢ $813 $853 +$40 (+5%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No 88¢ 93¢ $703 $746 +$43 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $679 $736 +$57 (+8%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 61¢ 91¢ $464 $690 +$226 (+49%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $689 $632 −$57 (-8%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 49¢ 58¢ $515 $614 +$100 (+19%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 75¢ 76¢ $530 $534 +$3 (+1%)
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? Meta 96¢ 96¢ $480 $480 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $365 $365 −$0 (-0%)
Obama federally charged before 2027? No 89¢ 95¢ $338 $362 +$23 (+7%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $348 $350 +$2 (+1%)
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $291 $300 +$9 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $265 $272 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 12 $291 +$9 +3%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $14,845 −$213,442 -1438%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Jun 12 $9,937 −$21,051 -212%
Will Tammy Duckworth be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
France wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Jun 12 $758 −$758 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $0 −$32,036 -11089125%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jun 12 $3,946 −$20,860 -529%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Great Britain wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Jun 12 $758 −$758 -100%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Jun 12 $0 −$99 -23976%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jun 12 $43 +$141 +329%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Jun 12 $195 −$16,748 -8579%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 12 $1,812,017 −$1,982,763 -109%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $203,003 −$408,166 -201%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 12 $195 −$20,742 -10625%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jun 12 $0 +$60 +51221%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $418,312 −$418,312 -100%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,042 −$20,860 -516%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-01? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Jun 12 $9,759 −$21,044 -216%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Jun 12 $195 −$19,520 -9999%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of January 2 Jun 12 $387 −$387 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$106,891
finance 19% +$2,167
economics 10% +$235
crypto 2% +$607
world 2% +$23
tech 1% −$190
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 2m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 3m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 7m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $3 7m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 37m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 38m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $6 50m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 50m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 54m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $9,920 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $7 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $2 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $2 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $21 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $300 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $600 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -53.6% -58.0% 6% 3% -99.9%
≤30d 130 -51.7% -56.3% 8% 5% -99.8%
≤90d 130 -51.7% -56.3% 8% 5% -99.8%
all 130 -51.7% -56.3% 8% 5% -99.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover225.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.3% 5% -99.8%
10% -60.5% 5% -99.8%
15% ← realistic here -64.3% 4% -99.8%
20% -67.8% 2% -99.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118,066.71 · official $118,069.99 (match) · 3500 history records