Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbfc…6b67 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$3
politics 32% −$3
crypto 12% −$1
sports 12% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage92d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 26 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Apr 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $870 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 16 $801 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pres Apr 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 14 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $166 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 26 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $25 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $13 2h
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $894 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $13 2h
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $342 2h
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,237 2h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 45d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $17 45d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 45d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 45d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $19 45d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 45d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 70d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 70d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $22 70d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 70d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 70d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $808 70d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 70d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 70d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $787 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records