Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FB 0xfbfc…92ff crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$302 (-51%) realized −$302 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-28.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-21.9%	-29.3%	0%	0%	-29.3%
≤30d	1	-21.9%	-29.3%	0%	0%	-29.3%
≤90d	1	-21.9%	-29.3%	0%	0%	-29.3%
all	11	-20.5%	-28.1%	36%	36%	-61.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.1%	36%	-61.5%
10%	-35.0%	27%	-65.2%
15%	-41.3%	18%	-68.6%
20%	-47.0%	18%	-71.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$49 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$302

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage116d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$102	−$22	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Mar 08	$38	−$18	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Mar 08	$1	+$4	+242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Mar 08	$15	+$5	+32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe	Mar 08	$87	+$13	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Mar 08	$9	−$9	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Mar 08	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Mar 08	$312	−$267	-86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Mar 08	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Mar 08	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Mar 08	$3	+$2	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	SELL Over	31¢	$80	30m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	39¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$7	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$11	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$2	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$18	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$20	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$1	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$7	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$15	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$0	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$0	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$4	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	SELL Down	43¢	$40	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$312	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$12	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$0	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$3	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$2	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$1	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$3	105d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe	BUY No	87¢	$1	116d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe	BUY No	87¢	$43	116d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe	BUY No	87¢	$44	116d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records