Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbfb…f563 sports 675 markets active 88d ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,246 (+1%) realized +$30,246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%654W / 23L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,116per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$1,124
other 29% +$15,279
sports 23% +$1,212
world 7% −$28,031
weather 6% +$2,057
politics 2% −$134
culture 1% −$6,323
economics 0% +$8
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 19 -68.3% -71.4% 32% 0% -93.7%
all 677 +5.7% -4.4% 97% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 1% -10.6%
10% -13.6% 1% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.9% 1% -26.9%
20% -29.6% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$6,029 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$30,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses654 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)677 / 675
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$5,116
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 677 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Walz" this week? (December 8 - 14) Jun 29 $392 +$1 +0%
Kjaer vs. Jodar: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 29 $53 $0 +0%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $194 $0 +0%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $156 $0 +0%
UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? Apr 02 $193 +$1 +0%
Legends Cricket League: Konark Suryas Odisha vs India Tigers - Toss Ma Apr 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Legends Cricket League: Konark Suryas Odisha vs India Tigers - Toss Ma Apr 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Will The Life Of A Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the Billboard 200 #1 al Apr 02 $669 −$669 -100%
Will End of Beginning by Djo be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Apr 02 $4,985 −$4,985 -100%
Will Golden by HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna & REI AMI be the Billboard # Apr 02 $3,996 −$3,996 -100%
Will KPop Demon Hunters by Soundtrack be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Apr 02 $973 −$973 -100%
Will So Close To What by Tate McRae be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Apr 02 $863 −$863 -100%
Will DINASTIA by Peso Pluma & Tito Double P be the Billboard 200 #1 al Apr 02 $767 −$767 -100%
Will Folded by Kehlani be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Januar Apr 02 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Will Back To Friends by sombr be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Apr 02 $590 −$590 -100%
Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Apr 02 $436 −$436 -100%
Will FDO by Pooh Shiesty be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Janu Apr 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Milwaukee Panthers (W) Jan 16 $20 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET Jan 16 $154,296 +$154 +0%
Will The Leaks by Lil Baby be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jan 16 $169 $0 +0%
Will SOS by SZA be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January Jan 16 $1,130 +$1 +0%
Will Man's Best Friend by Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard 200 #1 al Jan 16 $989 +$1 +0%
Will I'm The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Jan 16 $1,195 +$5,669 +474%
Will I thought I saw Your Face Today by She & Him be the Billboard #1 Jan 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will So Easy (To Fall In Love) by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song Jan 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will Mutt by Leon Thomas be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Janu Jan 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will Daisies by Justin Bieber be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Jan 16 $312 $0 +0%
Will I Got Better by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 song for the we Jan 16 $335 $0 +0%
Will Opalite by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Jan 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for Jan 16 $1 +$8,113 +660222%
Will Where Is My Husband! by RAYE be the Billboard #1 song for the wee Jan 16 $251 $0 +0%
Will The Art Of Loving by Olivia Dean be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Jan 16 $5,663 −$5,663 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)? Jan 16 $63 $0 +0%
Bellarmine Knights vs. Lipscomb Bisons: O/U 154.5 Jan 16 $31 $0 +0%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31? Jan 16 $82 $0 +0%
Bellarmine Knights vs. Lipscomb Bisons: O/U 155.5 Jan 16 $31 $0 +0%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Austin Peay Governors: O/U 155.5 Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Austin Peay Governors (-7.5) Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats: O/U 139.5 Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
McDonald vs. Grenier: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jan 16 $494 $0 +0%
Spread: North Alabama Lions (-9.5) Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs LA MASIA - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $201 $0 +0%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 16 $79,884 +$88 +0%
Will Trump say "Sean" or "Hannity" this week? (January 18) Jan 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? Jan 15 $93 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Pasika UA (-1.5) Jan 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.60 on January 15? Jan 15 $13,446 +$13 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Dorado Gaming 100¢ $38 87d
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Dorado Gaming 100¢ $156 87d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 87d
UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF: Both Teams to Score BUY No 100¢ $108 87d
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $38 87d
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $156 87d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 88d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 88d
Legends Cricket League: Konark Suryas Odisha vs India Tigers - Toss Ma BUY No 100¢ $39 88d
Legends Cricket League: Konark Suryas Odisha vs India Tigers - Toss Ma BUY No 100¢ $39 88d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 164d
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Milwaukee Panthers (W) BUY Milwaukee Panthers 100¢ $20 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $620 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $155 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $621 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $622 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2,494 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,978 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,977 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,976 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,981 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,980 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,979 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,983 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,982 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,984 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9,986 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.67 · official $445.67 (match) · 3500 history records