Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfbf8…cb04 other 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,369 (+6%) realized +$1,489 · open −$120
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%76W / 106L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days−$1,669
14 days−$1,343
30 days+$941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$2,074
politics 31% +$719
sports 25% +$2,780
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -60.1% -63.9% 17% 17% -64.9%
≤30d 37 +13.7% +2.9% 43% 41% +1.8%
≤90d 83 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 34% -0.7%
all 182 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 40% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 40% -1.9%
10% -28.3% 34% -11.3%
15% -35.2% 28% -19.8%
20% -41.6% 24% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$57 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$2,231
Realized+$1,489
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses76 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions13
Markets (closed)182 / 197
History coverage256d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $853 +$100 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $662 −$659 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $694 −$687 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $332 −$295 -89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$50 +256%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $490 +$279 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$18 +595%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $1,740 −$1,734 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $24 −$9 -37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $249 +$208 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $9 +$17 +180%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $708 −$495 -70%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 28 $1,060 +$4,255 +402%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele May 27 $56 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $24 +$15 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $22 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $90 +$13 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $60 +$30 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 24 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $16 +$10 +60%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $136 +$25 +18%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 +$32 +786%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $195 +$31 +16%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $953 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $853 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $136 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $274 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $708 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 35¢ $18 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $662 24h
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti BUY Yes 33¢ $21 24h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $31 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 73¢ $101 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $694 5d
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $110 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $37 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 6d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,231.23 · official $2,331.63 · 516 history records